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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 3 yards (51-D.Malone).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model