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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 70

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to BUF 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harty to BUF 13 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model