4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BUF
70.5%
NE
29.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Mac Jones (NE) -0.123 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.137 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
NE 16
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BUF

Quintin Morris TE Out Ankle
Ed Oliver DT Out Toe
Cameron Lewis CB Questionable Shoulder

NE

Riley Reiff T Out Knee
Josh Uche LB Out Knee
Keion White DE Out Concussion
David Andrews C Questionable Ankle
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Kayshon Boutte WR Questionable Hamstring
Trenton Brown T Questionable Chest
Cody Davis S Questionable Knee
Demario Douglas WR Questionable Concussion
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Foot
Trey Flowers LB Questionable Foot
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Ankle
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Jack Jones CB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Onwenu G Questionable Ankle
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Concussion
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 25
–
NE 29

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:05 FG NE (10:05) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 07:05 TD NE (7:05) 15-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 15-Elliott 70th career rush TD, 34th all-time. BUF 0 – NE 9
  • Q2 14:52 FG BUF (14:52) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – NE 10
  • Q2 07:39 FG NE (7:39) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 3 – NE 13
  • Q3 09:57 TD BUF (9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NE 13
  • Q3 04:34 FG NE (4:34) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 10 – NE 16
  • Q4 07:40 TD NE (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [21-J.Poyer]. BUF 10 – NE 22
  • Q4 05:40 TD BUF (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [5-J.Peppers]. BUF 16 – NE 22
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – NE 22
  • Q4 00:15 TD NE (:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 25 – NE 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (10:05) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (14:52) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to BUF 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harty to BUF 13 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:36) 8-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NE 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-D.Douglas to BUF 46 for 25 yards (26-T.Johnson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (7:39) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 16 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (1:55) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 27%

    (:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to BUF 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%

    (4:34) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%

    (:25) 17-J.Allen up the middle to NE 41 for 2 yards (5-J.Peppers).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 69%

    (13:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox (8-J.Bentley).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 97%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to NE 4 for 4 yards (29-J.Jackson).