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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 49

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to BUF 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.07 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP