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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 12

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP