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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 31

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.93 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model