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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 43
Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 16
What Actually Happened
(:25) 17-J.Allen up the middle to NE 41 for 2 yards (5-J.Peppers).
The Three Options
GO
+1.61 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
- 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK
-0.61 EP
- 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 58% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
