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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 33
Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 16
What Actually Happened
(13:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox (8-J.Bentley).
The Three Options
GO
+1.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
- 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK
+0.84 EP
- 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
