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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 7-M.Gay 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at IND 45. 21-D.Ward to IND 26 for 19 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.51 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model