4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CLE
36.5%
IND
63.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Deshaun Watson in place of Phillip Walker)
  • CLE defense: -0.196 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
IND 22
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CLE

Sione Takitaki LB Out Hamstring
Deshaun Watson QB Questionable right Shoulder
Harrison Bryant TE Questionable Hip
Kareem Hunt RB Questionable Thigh
Greg Newsome CB Questionable Hamstring

IND

Kylen Granson TE Out Concussion
Braden Smith T Out Hip
Alec Pierce WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 39
–
IND 38

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:12 TD CLE (14:12) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 11:47 TD IND (11:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 7 – IND 6
  • Q1 04:34 TD IND (4:34) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 14:24 TD CLE (14:24) (Shotgun) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 27-K.Hunt. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – IND 14
  • Q2 08:43 FG CLE (8:43) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – IND 14
  • Q2 03:57 TD IND (3:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – IND 20
  • Q2 01:50 TD CLE (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND -5 for -11 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], RECOVERED by CLE-42-T.Fields at IND -5. TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – IND 21
  • Q2 00:02 FG CLE (:02) 7-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 27 – IND 21
  • Q3 09:28 FG CLE (9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 30 – IND 21
  • Q3 05:14 TD IND (5:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 30 – IND 27
  • Q4 14:13 FG IND (14:13) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. CLE 30 – IND 31
  • Q4 06:38 FG CLE (6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 33 – IND 31
  • Q4 05:50 TD IND (5:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-11-M.Pittman, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CLE 33 – IND 37
  • Q4 00:19 TD CLE (:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 39 – IND 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%

    (9:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to IND 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 43 for 8 yards (40-M.Adams, 26-R.McLeod).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 69 yards to IND 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 27 for 21 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 43-M.Diabate).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 42
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 49%

    (10:16) 7-M.Gay 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at IND 45. 21-D.Ward to IND 26 for 19 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (8:43) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 46%

    (2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to IND 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 30 for 9 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 6 yards (43-T.Denbow).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to IND 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 33 for no gain (20-P.Strong). FUMBLES (20-P.Strong), and recovers at IND 33.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 52%

    (2:25) 10-P.Walker FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 47, recovered by CLE-34-J.Ford at CLE 46. 34-J.Ford to 50 for 4 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (14:13) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to CLE 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%

    (6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to IND 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 32 for 9 yards (28-M.Ford).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 7 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.