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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model