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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 17 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to IND 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP