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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 30 for 9 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.79 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model