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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 30 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 10-P.Walker FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 47, recovered by CLE-34-J.Ford at CLE 46. 34-J.Ford to 50 for 4 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model