4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 30 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model