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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 33 – Indianapolis Colts 38

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to IND 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 32 for 9 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model