Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Cleveland Browns 33

(2:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 7 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.26 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model