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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model