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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 10

Denver Broncos 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 16-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model