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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

GB
50.3%
DEN
49.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.109 vs Jordan Love (GB) -0.057 EPA/dropback
  • GB on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
DEN 19
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

GB

De'Vondre Campbell LB Doubtful Ankle
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Back
Elgton Jenkins G Questionable Knee
Zayne Anderson S Questionable Hamstring
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Yosuah Nijman T Questionable Knee
Darnell Savage S Questionable Calf
Eric Stokes CB Questionable Foot
Quay Walker LB Questionable Knee
Devonte Wyatt DE Questionable Knee

DEN

Greg Dulcich TE Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
DEN 19

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:30 FG DEN (8:30) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. GB 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 13:17 FG DEN (13:17) 16-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. GB 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:09 FG DEN (:09) 16-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. GB 0 – DEN 9
  • Q3 10:28 FG GB (10:28) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – DEN 9
  • Q3 06:22 TD DEN (6:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – DEN 15
  • Q3 01:53 TD GB (1:53) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – DEN 16
  • Q4 08:35 TD GB (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – DEN 16
  • Q4 03:54 FG DEN (3:54) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. GB 17 – DEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (8:30) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to DEN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 11 yards (55-K.Enagbare).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (2:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (13:17) 16-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DEN 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to GB 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-K.Nixon to GB 28 for 15 yards (45-N.Adkins; 39-D.Washington).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 86%

    (:46) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (10:28) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to GB 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-K.Nixon to GB 24 for 2 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%

    (11:52) 10-J.Love pass short right to 89-B.Sims to DEN 27 for 2 yards (2-P.Surtain).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 69%

    (3:54) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right.