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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DEN 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP