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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model