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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 10 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model