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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 34

Denver Broncos 16 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.64 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model