Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 76

Denver Broncos 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

(5:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model