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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (33-D.Lloyd). Penalty on NO-13-M.Thomas, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.28 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model