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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Thursday 2023-10-19 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

JAX
36.9%
NO
63.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.198 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

JAX

Tyson Campbell CB Out Hamstring
Zay Jones WR Out Knee
Walker Little T Out Knee
Davon Hamilton DT Out Back
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Ankle
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Knee

NO

J.T. Gray S Out Hamstring
James Hurst T Out Ankle
Juwan Johnson TE Out Calf
Ryan Ramczyk T Out Concussion
Landon Young T Out Hip
Demario Davis LB Questionable Knee
Lonnie Johnson S Questionable Hamstring
Tyrann Mathieu S Questionable Foot
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 31
–
NO 24

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:48 TD JAX (9:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 01:29 FG NO (1:29) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. JAX 7 – NO 3
  • Q2 13:17 TD JAX (13:17) 1-T.Etienne left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG NO (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. JAX 14 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:36 FG JAX (:36) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – NO 6
  • Q3 09:53 FG NO (9:53) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. JAX 17 – NO 9
  • Q3 07:00 TD JAX (7:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (31-Dari.Williams) at NO 24. 23-F.Oluokun for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – NO 9
  • Q4 14:24 TD NO (14:24) (Shotgun) 64-N.Saldiveri, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – NO 15
  • Q4 06:42 TD NO (6:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – NO 22
  • Q4 03:19 TD JAX (3:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 30 – NO 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 78%

    (5:21) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:44) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to JAX 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Campbell MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 19, RECOVERED by NO-28-L.Johnson at JAX 17. JAX-39-J.Agnew was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:29) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 50%

    (10:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (33-D.Lloyd). Penalty on NO-13-M.Thomas, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to NO 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 45%

    (7:24) 39-L.Hedley punts 28 yards to JAX 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to NO 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on JAX-26-A.Johnson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 39.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 63%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at JAX 22 for 17 yards (2-R.Jenkins; 33-D.Lloyd) [41-J.Allen].

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 45%

    (1:33) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short left to 15-T.Jones to NO 33 for 13 yards (27-I.Yiadom, 31-J.Howden).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 88%

    (:36) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 31%

    (12:47) 41-A.Kamara left guard to JAX 35 for 17 yards (30-M.Brown).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (9:53) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to NO 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 88%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end pushed ob at JAX 15 for 10 yards (37-T.Herndon, 99-J.Ledbetter).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (14:24) (Shotgun) 64-N.Saldiveri, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to NO 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:39) 39-L.Hedley punts 62 yards to JAX 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-28-L.Johnson.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 43%

    (7:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to NO 47 for no gain (93-N.Shepherd).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (4:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to NO 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to JAX 45, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at NO 46 for 9 yards (45-N.Sewell).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (30-M.Brown).