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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to NO 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on JAX-26-A.Johnson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.98 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model