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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at JAX 22 for 17 yards (2-R.Jenkins; 33-D.Lloyd) [41-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model