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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to NO 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP