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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 25

New Orleans Saints 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end pushed ob at JAX 15 for 10 yards (37-T.Herndon, 99-J.Ledbetter).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model