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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(14:24) (Shotgun) 64-N.Saldiveri, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model