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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to NO 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model