Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

(3:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to JAX 45, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at NO 46 for 9 yards (45-N.Sewell).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.72 EP
49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model