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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 65 yards to KC 3, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP