Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- KC offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.205 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- KC on 4 more days rest than LAC
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
LAC
KC
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:52 FG KC (6:52) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LAC 0 – KC 3
- Q1 01:53 FG LAC (1:53) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – KC 3
- Q2 14:23 TD KC (14:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – KC 9
- Q2 10:51 TD LAC (10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – KC 10
- Q2 08:44 TD KC (8:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – KC 16
- Q2 07:11 TD LAC (7:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – KC 17
- Q2 00:21 TD KC (:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – KC 23
- Q4 03:35 TD KC (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-I.Pacheco for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – KC 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:07) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%
(6:52) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%
(2:57) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to KC 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 19 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to LAC 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-2-J.Williams.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 65 yards to KC 3, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 90Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 61%
(12:48) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LAC 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%
(11:59) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:07) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to LAC 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(6:32) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to KC 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Hardman pushed ob at LAC 35 for 50 yards (0-D.Henley).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 16 at the 81 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 30%
(2:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer to LAC 38 for 19 yards (38-L.Sneed).