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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 90

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LAC 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP