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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to KC 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Hardman pushed ob at LAC 35 for 50 yards (0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model