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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model