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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP