Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.200 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- PHI defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- Wind 17 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
MIA
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:57 FG PHI (7:57) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. MIA 0 – PHI 3
- Q1 01:03 FG MIA (1:03) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – PHI 3
- Q2 11:31 TD PHI (11:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PHI 9
- Q2 03:20 TD PHI (3:20) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PHI 16
- Q2 00:45 TD MIA (:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – PHI 17
- Q3 04:08 TD MIA (4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – PHI 17
- Q3 00:20 TD PHI (:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – PHI 23
- Q4 04:50 TD PHI (4:50) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – PHI 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(7:57) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to PHI 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 56%
(13:00) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to MIA 35 for 2 yards (2-B.Chubb; 55-J.Baker).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 56%
(10:07) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 67%
(3:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to MIA 1 for 32 yards (34-P.Nickerson).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 22%
(10:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to PHI 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:23) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to MIA 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 36 for 16 yards (53-C.Elliss).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 89%
(4:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 74Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(10:01) 1-J.Hurts left guard to PHI 28 for 2 yards (8-J.Holland).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(8:10) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 39 for 2 yards (2-B.Chubb).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:23) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (39-E.Ricks).