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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to MIA 1 for 32 yards (34-P.Nickerson).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model