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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to MIA 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 36 for 16 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.19 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model