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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Miami Dolphins
4th & 3 at the 21
Miami Dolphins 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17
What Actually Happened
(4:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson.
The Three Options
GO
+2.01 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
KICK
+1.42 EP
- 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT
-0.23 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
