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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 1-J.Hurts left guard to PHI 28 for 2 yards (8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model