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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 6, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP