Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

(3:23) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (39-E.Ricks).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -2.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model