Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(5:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to PHI 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.66 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model