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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 8-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model