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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PIT
42.8%
LA
57.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT on 7 more days rest than LA
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) -0.010 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.030 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PIT

Pat Freiermuth TE Out Hamstring

LA

Larrell Murchison DT Out Knee
Kyren Williams RB Out Ankle
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Knee
Derion Kendrick CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Ben Skowronek WR Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 24
–
LA 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:56 FG PIT (14:56) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 06:00 FG LA (6:00) 8-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. PIT 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:25 TD LA (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – LA 9
  • Q3 13:23 TD PIT (13:23) 8-K.Pickett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – LA 9
  • Q3 09:00 TD LA (9:00) (No Huddle) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – LA 15
  • Q4 13:54 TD PIT (13:54) 30-J.Warren left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – LA 17
  • Q4 07:23 TD PIT (7:23) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – LA 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:45) 6-P.Harvin punts 35 yards to LA 37, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (10:51) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-C.Austin ran ob at PIT 21 for 6 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%

    (7:37) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to LA 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%

    (3:40) 8-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 72%

    (14:56) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to LA 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (6:00) 8-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to LA 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (1:27) 8-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:45) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:39) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-C.Austin to PIT 14 for 2 yards (26-D.Shelley, 47-A.Ward).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 63%

    (2:24) 8-K.Pickett left guard to LA 38 for 1 yard (92-J.Williams).